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USA LOGISTICS MARKET ANALYSIS 2/7/2022


Today’s lanes to watch: Monday, February 7, 2022


Takeaways for today's lanes:

  • Rejection rates are nearing 25% in the Indianapolis to Elizabeth lane.

  • Dallas to Nashville spot rates are moving higher amid increasing tender rejections in the Nashville market.

  • Rejections are likely to rise in the Harrisburg to Dallas lane as the Headhaul Index surges 16% w/w.

Indianapolis to Elizabeth – Rejections spike out of Indianapolis after the winter storm.

SONAR Tickers: OTRI.IND, OTRI.INDEWR, OTRI.EWR


Highlights:

  • Indianapolis’ outbound rejection rate spiked from 25% to 28% last week after the city was hit by a strong winter storm.

  • The rate began to stabilize slightly over the weekend. Rejection rates to Elizabeth increased similarly (but at a slightly lower level than the market). FreightWaves TRAC spot rates leveled off at $4.89 per mile.

  • Elizabeth’s outbound rejection rates have fallen significantly over the past two weeks – from 20% to 15.6%.


What does this mean for you?


Brokers: Expect rates to stop increasing by late week as the market recovers from the winter storm. This lane was tightening prior to the winter weather, but there are early signs of stabilization.


Carriers: Divert capacity to the spot market in this lane with Elizabeth’s rejection rates dropping quickly. Rates should be well above $4 per mile, which should help pay for the declining reload potential.


Shippers: Consider a rate increase in this lane if your compliance levels are below 75% and your contract rates are well below the going spot rate. This lane is prone to numerous weather disruptions for the next few months and carriers still have plenty of options to move in more favorable directions.


Dallas to Nashville – Spot rates rise amid increasing tender rejections in the Nashville market.

FreightWaves TRAC Market Dashboard – Dallas to Nashville


Highlights:

  • FreightWaves TRAC spot rates have climbed to $2.93 per mile in the Dallas to Nashville lane, approaching the 6-month high rate of $2.95 per mile that occurred on January 12.

  • Outbound tender rejections for the Nashville market have increased to 26.4% amid volatility from winter weather systems and increasing outbound tender volumes.

  • Outbound tender rejections from Dallas declined to 14.92% (a 6-month low) against a backdrop of elevated volumes, indicating more capacity entering the market.


What does this mean for you?


Brokers: Rising outbound tender rejections in Nashville and greater volatility represent a chance to take advantage of the price movements for greater margins. While committed freight may be priced lower, ad hoc opportunities should allow you to increase margins due to the rise in spot rates relative to tender rejections.


Carriers: Examine if extra capacity in the Dallas market can be used for spot quotes, as the rise in rates may create greater revenue opportunities compared to contractual commitments. Due to lower outbound tender rejection rates from Dallas and rising tender rejections in Nashville, there may be a chance to source with shippers directly for last-minute loads while providing cheaper rates compared to using a broker.


Shippers: Focus on tender compliance for both brokers and carriers, as contracted rates may remain lower than the recent surge in spot prices. Avoid last-minute shipments if possible and communicate with carriers and brokers regarding increasing tender lead times to reduce transportation costs and service disruptions.


Harrisburg to Dallas – Rejections are likely to rise as the Headhaul Index surges 16% w/w.

Market Dashboard FreightWaves TRAC Spot Rates from Harrisburg to Dallas


Highlights:

  • Harrisburg outbound tender volumes are up 7% w/w, signaling that demand for capacity is increasing.

  • The Headhaul Index in Harrisburg is up 16% w/w, signaling that capacity is likely to tighten.

  • Harrisburg outbound tender rejections are only up 75 basis points (bps) w/w, but expect them to increase due to the growing imbalance between inbound and outbound volumes.


What does this mean for you?


Brokers: You are likely to see capacity tighten significantly throughout this week. Outbound tender rejections are only up 7% w/w , but the increase of 16% w/w in the Headhaul Index is signaling that there are fewer trucks hauling freight into Harrisburg, so any further increases in outbound volumes (highly likely) will put greater pressure on capacity and spot rates.


Carriers: Harrisburg’s pricing power will be shifting further in your favor for the remainder of the week. If you have capacity in that market, you should increase your rates for the week. Most brokers and shippers are likely feeling capacity tighten, so stay firm on your rates and capitalize on your spot market opportunities.


Shippers: Your shipper cohorts in Harrisburg are averaging 3.3 days in tender lead times, but if the Headhaul Index continues to increase, you will need to have your tender lead times between 3.5 and 4 days to ensure that you are able to source capacity effectively during these tightening conditions.

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